The final look into UEFA qualification sees Group Seven, Eight, and Nine. The Netherlands have already completed their qualification run in their rather simple group, but Scotland, Macedonia and Norway are all in a tight race for the playoff spot in Group Nine. France has struggled during this qualifying campaign, but can it really affect their chances? Can Bulgaria mount a late comeback and quash all Irish hopes of making it into the ever important playoff spot? Chamo dissects the remaining groups and completes his roundup with playoff predictions to give you the 13 European teams headed to South Africa next summer!

 

Group Seven:

With France looking abysmal in the attack (they have only managed 8 goals and only have a goal differential of +2) I initially thought a team like Romania, who has some undeniably talented players, could mount a decent run for the second position. However, everyone in Group Seven, with the exception of Serbia, has been a disappointment. None of the squads have managed any form of consistency which has lead to France comfortably maintaining their spot in second. I can’t see anything exciting happening in this group, other than France potentially stumbling further along and possibly being the odd man out of the playoff (since only the top eight second place teams get the joy of an extra two-game stint to prove their worth).

Predicted Results:

September 5th:

Austria 4:0 Faroe Islands

France 0:0 Romania

September 9th:

Faroe Islands 2:3 Lithuania

Romania 2:1 Austria

Serbia 1:0 France

October 10th:

Serbia 2:1 Romania

France 4:0 Faroe Islands

Austria 2:1 Lithuania

October 14th:

Romania 3:0 Faroe Islands

France 1:0 Austria

Lithuania 0:2 Serbia

 

Final Standings

Serbia 27 points - Qualify

France 20 points – Playoff

Romania 14 points

Austria 13 points

Lithuania 12 points

Faroe Islands 1 point

 

Group Eight

Italy has struggled a fair amount thus far, however not to the degree of France’s demise. The former World Champs have a comfortable lead at the top of their group, but Group Eight really doesn’t contain another big name team like some other groups had. What this means is Ireland, who haven’t been to a World Cup since 1994 in the USA, are sitting pretty in the playoff position, and must attempt to break the 20 point threshold to ensure they get the opportunity of a playoff match. Bulgaria, lead by non-imposing forward Dimitar Berbatov, are in a somewhat distant third, and without an Irish self implosion, has virtually no chance of a comeback. Montenegro have been the biggest disappointment, though not much was expected of them to begin with (still, falling behind Cyprus in the standings never bodes well).

EDIT: Ireland made it to the 2002 World Cup, but being the one World Cup in my life that I didn't make it to, I seemingly forgot their impressive display (almost beating Spain in the round of 16). I am sorry for my mistake.

Predicted Results:

September 5th:

Bulgaria 0:0 Montenegro

Georgia 0:3 Italy

Cyprus 0:2 Ireland

September 9th:

Montenegro 1:0 Cyprus

Italy 1:0 Bulgaria

October 10th:

Ireland 0:0 Italy

Cyprus 2:3 Bulgaria

Montenegro 4:2 Georgia

October 14th:

Ireland 2:1 Montenegro

Italy 3:0 Cyprus

Bulgaria 1:0 Georgia

 

Final Standings:

Italy 24 points - Qualify

Ireland 20 points – Playoff

Bulgaria 15 points

Montenegro 11 points

Cyprus 5 points

Georgia 3 points

 

Group Nine:

With the Dutch already booking their flights and only four games remaining in the group, which will be completed in the next week, the race heats up between Norway, Scotland and Macedonia. Here is what makes this group so interesting. In order to make things fair, the results against the team that finishes in last in each of the first eight groups are dropped, putting the second place team in Group Nine on level pegging with the rest. I did the math with all of my results, and the magic number is 12 +6. What this means is 12 points, with a +6 goal differential. That is the number of the lowest scoring second place team in my results; Bosnia-Herzegovina. This means Scotland must win both matches and they are through, regardless of goal differential. Another possibility is Macedonia winning both of their matches, putting them through without worry of GD. Last there is the Norway situation: they must win both matches, and end up with at least a +6 combined from their matches to qualify. The Norwegians have only conceded one goal to date, but the second tie-breaker is goals scored, so they must beat the Bosnian’s goal difference in order to qualify. Scotland got handed no favors by the Dutch, who brought along the entire first squad, meanwhile Norway got the easier of the draws, having to face both Iceland and Macedonia, avoiding Scotland and Holland at the vital qualification time.

Predicted Results:

Scotland 2:0 Macedonia

Iceland 1:3 Norway

September 9th:

Norway 4:0 Macedonia

Scotland 0:2 Netherlands

 

Final Standings:

Netherlands 24 points – Qualify

Norway 12 points – Playoff

Scotland 10 points

Macedonia 7 points

Iceland 4 points

 

PLAYOFFS:
Bosnia, despite their efforts, get beat out for the coveted last playoff spot by a late Norweigan surge, thus the eight playoff spots are as follows:
France
Norway
Ireland
Croatia
Russia
Poland
Hungary
Greece

 

Since I cannot predict the draw that will occur for these teams I’m simply going to list the 13 squads I expect to see next summer:
Germany
England
Spain
Netherlands
Italy
Serbia
Denmark
Switzerland
Slovakia
France
Russia
Croatia
Ireland

 

What do you think of these predictions? Think I am asking too much for Ireland to make it past the playoffs? Think Norway has no chance mounting an epic comeback? Let me know: