Groups Four through Six are significantly less interesting than my initial installment of Groups One-Three, in a still very interesting sort of way. That made no sense, anyway, with the top teams in each of the three groups in no significant danger and England capable of clinching a trip next summer with a single win this coming week,  it is the battle for the playoff spots that could be gripping. Finland, Turkey, and Ukraine all are within reaching distance of the number two slot, but Turkey has the stern test of playing the youthful and incredibly impressive Bosnia-Herzegovina team that has been shocking Group Five. A loss would see the team that stunned Euro 2008 miss out on a trip to South Africa all together. Here’s how I see it unfolding.

 

Group Four:

Germany actually finds themselves in a spot of bother with Russia breathing down their neck. Sure the standings don’t look like it at first glance, but the talented Russian side has a game in hand (against Liechtenstein…) and the advantage of playing Germany, in Russia, in October. This creates a bit of a conundrum for the 2006 hosts, who certainly don’t want to have to leave their World Cup fate to a playoff game, potentially against a team like Croatia, Portugal, or even France. Finland aren’t far off Russia’s pace, and will be hoping that the German’s convincingly win in Russia on October 10th, but will need Wales, Liechtenstein or Azerbaijan to also take points from Guus Hiddink’s side, which might be too much to ask. Why is it too much to ask? If Russia win on Saturday, Wales will be mathematically eliminated meaning the bottom three teams will have very little to play for in those important matches.

Predicted Results:

September 5th:

Azerbaijan 0:2 Finland

Russia 4:0 Liechtenstein

 September 9th:

Liechtenstein 1:3 Finland

Germany 7:0 Azerbaijan

Wales 0:2 Russia

October 10th:

Finland 1:1 Wales

Russia 1:2 Germany

Liechtenstein 0:2 Azerbaijan

October 14th:

Liechtenstein 0:1 Wales

Azerbaijan 0:3 Russia

Germany 3:1 Finland

 

Final Standings:

Germany 28 points – Qualify

Russia 24 points – Playoff

Finland 17 points

Wales 10 points

Azerbaijan 4 points

Liechtenstein 1 point

 

Group Five:

Spain can qualify by recording two victories this week, and considering both of their matches are at the Bernabeu, it’s safe to say the Spaniards have little to worry about. Any Turkish loss will hand Bosnia the opportunity to clinch the coveted playoff spot, but Bosnians won’t be celebrating yet, as they have to play both Turkey and Spain in their remaining four games. Bosnia can end all Turkish hope with a home victory over Turkey next Wednesday; in what should be the game of the day in qualification given its results implications. Belgium is hot on the Turks tail, a mere one point behind, yet they play Spain on Saturday, virtually ending their run for qualification. Estonia and Armenia bring up the tail end, and can make the group interesting with results against the three teams battling for second, but have no hopes of qualifying themselves.

Predicted Results:

September 5th:

Armenia 1:2 Bosnia-Herzegovina

Turkey 3:0 Estonia

Spain 2:0 Belgium

September 9th:

Armenia 1:1 Belgium

Bosnia-Herzegovina 1:2 Turkey

Spain 4:0 Estonia

October 10th:

Estonia 0:1 Bosnia-Herzegovina

Belgium 2:0 Turkey

Armenia 1:4 Spain

October 14th:

Turkey 2:0 Armenia

Estonia 1:3 Belgium

Bosnia-Herzegovina 0:2 Spain

 

Final Standings:

Spain 30 points - Qualify

Bosnia-Herzegovina 18 points- Playoff

Turkey 17 points

Belgium 14 points

Estonia 5 points

Armenia 2 points

 

Group Six:

The group that had all the attention in the early going as it pitted Croatia and England against each other for the second straight time has come to be rather uninteresting. Still, the England v Croatia game next Wednesday is sure to be a thriller, despite the fact England could already have booked their flights. Ukraine has been a surprise, though Shevchenko is no longer the wonder-stud he used to be, their defense seems to have matured. Meanwhile, Belarus has impressed, despite having no chance at qualifying, the small countries have emerged these past two years and could become a force next round. Kazakhstan (I really didn’t even know they were part of UEFA…) and Andorra have been dismal, but only per expectation. There should be no real surprises in this one, with England and Croatia finishing 1-2 in the group.

Predicted Results:

September 5th:

Ukraine 3:1 Andorra

Croatia 3:1 Belarus

September 9th:

Belarus 2:1 Ukraine

Andorra 1:2 Kazakhstan

England 3:2 Croatia

October 10th:

Ukraine 2:1 England

Belarus 1:1 Kazakhstan

October 14th:

England 2:0 Belarus

Kazakhstan 1:4 Croatia

Andorra 0:2 Ukraine

 

Final Standings:

England 27 points - Qualify

Croatia 20 points (+12 GD) - Playoff

Ukraine 20 points (+7 GD)

Belarus 13 points

Kazakhstan 7 points

Andorra 0 points

 

UPDATE: Here is Groups One, Two and Three

UPDATE: Here is Groups Seven, Eight and Nine

The final installment covering Groups Seven – Nine will be up tomorrow by noon, I swear (so long as Gmail doesn’t crash again!) Let me know what you think: