To be part of the first major World competition in Africa is huge. To be an African representative is a whole different story. With South Africa already possessing one of the coveted six spots assigned to the continent, African qualification has taken on a whole new fervor as we get closer to reaching the final 32 teams. With most teams half way through their respective qualification process, with only three games left for each (with the exception of Cameroon and Gabon – with four) some interesting front-runners have emerged. As expected, Ghana and Ivory Coast are sitting with maximum points atop their groups, but more interestingly, Algeria is leading Group C over Egypt. Gabon is on top of Group A and Group B is a close race between Algeria and Nigeria, but who is going to end up on top?

 

September 5th, 6th  and 9th:

Only four matches this Saturday, but Group E could be theoretically wrapped up if the Ivory Coast wins at home versus Burkina Faso. Though it won’t be official, a single point from their remaining two games will be enough for the Elephants to clinch their spot in South Africa. The Group A matchup sees the currently underachieving Cameroonian squad take on the group leaders Gabon in what could be a deciding games for Cameroon, as they play each other twice, Saturday and the lone game on Wednesday. Any loss would make any chance at a comeback incredibly unlikely, and would catapult Gabon to an extremely comfortable lead. Gabon seem to be the surprise package of this year’s qualifiers, even more surprising considering the strength of Group A, who have African powerhouse Cameroon, as well as last World Cup’s surprise qualifier Togo and a challenging Moroccan side. Egypt must win to keep pace with an Algerian squad that seems to be retaining its quality players more, instead of fueling France with loads of talent. The last big matchup is between Nigeria and Tunisia, the two Group B squads battling for the lead, and is my African game of the week.

Predicted Results:

Saturday:
Malawi 1:1 Guinea

Rwanda 0:4 Egypt

Gabon 1:1 Cameroon

Ivory Coast 3:1 Burkina Faso

Sunday:
Mozambique 0:1 Kenya

Benin 0:2 Mali

Togo 0:1 Morocco

Nigeria 1:0 Tunisia

Ghana 2:0 Sudan

Algeria 3:1 Zambia

Wednesday:
Cameroon 2:1 Gabon

 

October 10th and 11th:

This is the weekend you can expect most of the groups to wrap up. Even with the last game not until November 14th, at least three of the five groups should be done and dusted. The most interesting battle, even though they aren’t even playing each other, will be the Group B matchups, as both Tunisia and Nigeria fight to keep pace with one another. Any dropped points from either of these teams and it could mean the end of qualification for them, especially depending on the outcome of their September 6th matchup. If Cameroon manages two victories over Gabon in September, it is possible that they could overtake the Group A lead, making the Cameroon v Togo game incredibly important. Egypt must manage an away win to keep up with Algeria, who have the benefit of playing at home to the group’s bottom-feeder Rwanda.

Predicted Results:

Saturday:
Tunisia 2:1 Kenya

Nigeria 3:2 Mozambique

Algeria 2:0 Rwanda

Zambia 1:3 Egypt

Mali 1:0 Sudan

Malawi 0:2 Ivory Coast

Cameroon 0:0 Togo

Gabon 0:0 Morocco

Sunday:
Benin 0:1 Ghana

Guinea 2:2 Burkina Faso

 

November 14th:

The final day of African Qualifying should have two, but could have three, exciting finishes. Groups D and E are done and dusted as Ghana and Ivory Coast dominated their groups, but Groups B and C are wide open and could well be a final day finish. If Nigeria doesn’t manage a win against Tunisia in September, their chances may be blown, as Tunisia is always a difficult squad to beat. However, more interestingly, Group C not only comes down to the wire, but pits teams one and two against each other, in what is sure to be the game of the year in terms of African qualifying. I envision at least one red card as Algeria must go to Egypt to settle Group C’s qualification spot. Group A is the biggest variable, as it could be already finished by this point, or it could become a four horse race between the entire group, dependent on results.

Predicted Results

Morocco 1:0 Cameroon

Togo 2:0 Gabon

Mozambique 1:2 Tunisia

Kenya 1:1 Nigeria

Egypt 3:3 Algeria

Sudan 1:0 Benin

Ghana 2:1 Mali

Ivory Coast 2:1 Guinea

Burkina Faso 1:2 Malawi

Rwanda 0:0 Zambia

 

Group A Final Standings:
Morocco – 9 pts – Qualify
Togo – 8 pts
Gabon – 8 pts
Cameroon – 6 pts

Group B Final Standings:
Tunisia – 13 pts – Qualify
Nigeria – 12 pts
Kenya – 7 pts
Mozambique – 1 pt

Group C Final Standings:
Algeria – 14 pts – Qualify
Egypt – 11 pts
Zambia – 5 pts
Rwanda – 2 pts

Group D Final Standings:
Ghana – 18 pts – Qualify
Mali – 10 pts
Sudan – 4 pts
Benin – 3pts

Group E Final Standings:
Ivory Coast – 18 pts – Qualify
Burkina Faso – 7 pts
Guinea – 5 pts
Malawi – 4 pts

 

In order for the Ivory Coast to qualify: They need four points, and it makes no difference how they get it. In truth, they might not even need that, as long as they at least draw against Burkina Faso, they should be safe. A loss, however, makes things interesting.

In order for Ghana to qualify: Basically the same situation as Ivory Coast, four points out of nine guarantees their spot, which should be easily attainable. Even losing a game isn’t tragic for the Black Stars.

The X factor team is: Tunisia, they haven’t missed a World Cup since 1998, and while they struggle once they make it to the big dance, they at least make their presence known. An African powerhouse of sorts, they have the tough test of fighting off a late Egyptian surge, but their tough style of play will prove too much for the Egyptians.

The comeback kids are: Morocco. Lead by impressive goal-scorer Chamakh the Morrocans can pull off a massive comeback, so long as they get some help from Cameroon. If Cameroon slows the roll of Gabon, it will make Group A an open invitation for anyone, as long as results are provided, and Morocco has all the skill necessary to resurrect themselves and make it to South Africa.

The last man in is: Algeria. The Algerians have the distinct honor of losing potential talent to France. Though Zidane and Benzema were both born in France, they are of Algerian descent and one can only wonder what would have happened if they had chose to represent their land of heritage. They certainly will not have it easy, but if they can overcome the Nigerian challenge, expect to see the Algerians next summer.

The odd men out: Egypt and Nigeria miss out on a trip due to the emergence of the Northern African football contingent of Algeria and Tunisia. The Egyptians flailed against an inspired US team this summer during the Confederations Cup and crumble under pressure yet again. Meanwhile, early qualification stumbles come back to haunt Nigeria as they miss out for the second straight World Cup.

The disappointment: Cameroon failed to come out of the gates strong and it ends up biting them later. Not even Eto’o can mount the comeback necessary to see Cameroon make it to South Africa. Group A was an impressive group, so it was never going to be easy, but we all expected way more out of the old African powerhouse.

The unfortunate ones: Mali and Burkina Faso are talented squads who played well against their oppositions, except they were drawn into groups with Ghana and Ivory Coast. If they had better luck they would more than likely be headed down to the southern tip of Africa, but fate had it the other way.

The sorry sacks: Rwanda and Mozambique were outclassed, and while that was expected I always feel bad for the teams that get to the final qualification round only to find themselves getting walked all over game after game.

 

What do you think about the African qualification? Do you see it ending differently?